Forex Trading System Online Investing in Forex Managed Accounts http://www.economic0recession.info Online Forex Trading Blog : Forex news, articles, forex brokers and managed forex accounts review Thu, 10 May 2007 09:49:08 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.1 en Forex Daily http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/09/forex-daily-3/ http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/09/forex-daily-3/#comments Fri, 09 Mar 2007 08:06:07 +0000 admin http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/09/forex-daily-3/ Good morning… O/N activity saw the Nikkei push higher again, with the yen trading a touch softer across the board, lifting the AUD, NZD, EUR and other rates. The focus on the day though is still payrolls out of the US, with a nonfarm number around 100K expected, jobless rate looking on for 4.6%. Keep in mind that the recent run of softer initial claims data has some economists pinning their hopes on a very low jobs figure, and chances are that the market, pricing in a rate cut and a recession (and the rest…) will actually be surprised if the figure comes out positive? Hmmm… Watch the CHF, the EURX popped higher yesterday and while this could simply be a reflection of traders putting ‘carry trades’ back on, chances are that it’s still the ‘poor mans’ upside USD play too. In the USD/CHF the pressure through 1.22 is interesting, see if this can build as a push towards 1.2440 should follow soon, then to 1.27+ and higher. In the EUR/USD though the 1.31/1.3075 zone is key to try and break in order to leave the USD open to 1.29 and a lot lower, but this looks tough. The trend risk is on a break through $1.3200 for $1.33/1.3370 next, with eyes on 1.3660. While the USD downside remains at risk here (and with the AUD and NZD up, maybe they are leading the way?) still leaning to the mkt being wrong on their view on Fed rate risk and the mkt pricing in way too much pessimism over the US economy. Time will tell, roll the dice on the jobs number. In the yen, 117.85 remains open, still aiming for 119 again, then higher, see if 117 can hold on dips. Good luck!

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Fore News http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/07/fore-news/ http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/07/fore-news/#comments Wed, 07 Mar 2007 07:30:12 +0000 admin http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/07/fore-news/ Good morning… A mixed Japanese stock market o/n will probably give European/US bulls a case of nerves today, as the initial gains in the Nikkei were well and truly reversed as the day wore on. While many pundits will start to look for another bout of yen gains if equity markets stumble further, keep in mind that 1) the majority of equity players probably didn’t have a yen or CHF funding play on as well, only the truly leveraged would be cutting the FX position as they took money off the table 2) if the view that the upside is constrained in the Japanese stock market takes hold, then a potential pillar of yen strength will be removed and 3) while Greenspan is out there beating on the ‘recession bongo drum’, the existing Fed officials are running around warning on inflation risks and not really playing up slowdown fears. FX market participants are cynical, skeptical and usually more than happy to look for conspiracy theories in every corner, so maybe (just maybe) Greenspan is being used as a ’stalking horse’ by the Fed in order to lay out the groundwork for a recession focus just in case its needed. Interesting….. but unlikely, as the Fed would probably lower their own tone first, but this will make the beige book tonight more interesting than usual reading (curl up with a cup of cocoa and slippers? Hmm…). For choice, the Fed is probably keeping the focus on inflation risks, probably happy enough with the housing market starting to bottom out. US Tsy Sec Paulson has been earning more frequent flyer miles and is talking up growth outlooks in Asia, look for more of the same as US officials probably see stock market jitters as normal events after a sharp run higher. For the FX? Not a lot there today, payrolls on Friday really does loom now as a big number would lift the USD, a soggy number would knock the USD for six. See if the USD/YEN can find support at 116.30/00 holding on the day, aiming for 117 and 117.85 still, while the EUR/YEN should try and build above 153 for 155. EUR/USD bolstered by cross flows late Tuesday, but favoring $1.3130 being sticky, with a turn below $1.3075 expected for $1.30 and lower. The risk is the same, up for $1.32 and $1.3370, trend fans will lean this way but… EUR/GBP found sellers again, aiming for 0.6780 pressure, then lower with 0.6820 res. to hold on the day. Cable should drop away to 1.92 and then 1.90, see if 1.9330 can cap ahead of 1.9400 today. EUR/CHF up, no war with Iran argues for 1.6280/1.6400 and higher. AUD data was strong o/n but RBA kept rates unchanged, favoring selling ahead of 0.78 for 0.7660 and 0.76, AUD/NZD though still on for 1.18 later on. BoC kept rates unchanged on Tuesday, CAD still favored to 1.1880 and then 1.1970/1.20 and higher… Good luck!

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The Pound fell… http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/05/the-pound-fell/ http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/05/the-pound-fell/#comments Mon, 05 Mar 2007 08:13:07 +0000 admin http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/05/the-pound-fell/ The pound fell as Asian stocks tumbled to the lowest in two months, leading investors to avoid riskier investments such as the so-called carry trade.
The carry-trade involves borrowing where interest rates are relatively low, as in Switzerland and Japan, and using the funds to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. High yielding currencies such as the pound, South African rand and New Zealand dollar fell against the euro last week, and the yen and franc gained.
“If, as anticipated, the equity markets continue to slide we’ll see a further unwinding of the carry trade which will hurt the pound’, said Armin Mekelburg, a Munich-based currency strategist at Italy’s UniCredit.
Against the euro, the pound traded at 68.36 pence at 8 a.m.  in London from 67.88 pence on March 2. It was also at $1.9228, from $1.9435.
A global selloff in equities last week wiped $1.5 trillion from the value of shares, on concern U.S. growth will stall.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt, which moves inversely to the price, fell 2 basis points to 4.75 percent. The price of the 4 percent note due September 2016 gained 0.16, or 1.6 pounds per 1,000 pound ($1,965) face amount, to 94.33. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
The pound may come under further pressure on speculation the Bank of England will lag behind the European Central Bank in raising interest rates. BOE will lift rates once again this year, while the ECB will probably lift them twice more, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Both banks meet to set rates this week.
The yield on the June interest-rate futures contract has fallen 16 basis points in February to 5.67 percent on March 2, indicating investors have become more wary in betting on further rate increases. The contract still suggests policy makers will lift borrowing costs once more this year.
The U.K. futures contracts settle to the three-month London inter-bank offered rate for the pound, which averaged about 15 basis points more than the BOE’s benchmark for the past decade.

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Gold Price http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/05/gold-price/ http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/05/gold-price/#comments Mon, 05 Mar 2007 07:19:43 +0000 admin http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/05/gold-price/ Gold prices collapsed on Friday (finally) with $656 giving way, $640 in the sights. This should see $656 revert to resistance, with $630 marking rising trendline support, targets to $620/600 below this, then to $540 and lower still. Early days, and many chartists are still looking for buying on dips here, but for choice the approach to $690 is near enough the $693 wave swing target which should leave a big ‘C’ wave target towards $500 per oz. attracting. This looks like a crowded trade that is unraveling, see if resistance holds…

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Exotic currencies report http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/05/exotic-currencies-report-2/ http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/05/exotic-currencies-report-2/#comments Mon, 05 Mar 2007 07:18:16 +0000 admin http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/05/exotic-currencies-report-2/ The RBI announced further measures designed to curb inflation on Friday. This is not too surprising after the Congress party lost power in Punjab and Uttarakhand last week due to widespread anger over higher food prices. There are elections looming in two other key states this year. The RBI said on Friday that it would resume the sale of market stabilisation scheme (MSS) bonds from this week on to absorb excess money from the financial system. The CB will auction INR60bn of 6.65% 2009 MSS bonds on Mar 6, payment to be made Mar 7. Further announcements will be made each Friday. In addition, the 2nd stage of the cash reserve ratio (CRR) kicked in on Sat (Mar 3rd) taking the CRR to 6%. The weeklyWPI slipped back to 6.05% last week, from 6.63% the week before helped by the fuel price cut but this needs to be sustained. The RBI will still probably need to raise rates at some stage, but look for them to continue to defend the 44 zone. Upticks to 44.80 look on if 44.30 can be cleared convincingly.

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Forex daily http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/05/forex-daily-2/ http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/05/forex-daily-2/#comments Mon, 05 Mar 2007 07:17:23 +0000 admin http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/05/forex-daily-2/ Good morning… The Yen continued to firm o/n with the Y116 level giving way, 115.50/40 put through the wringer as the EUR/YEN sank towards152 and GBP/YEN is eyeing 223. The AUD and NZD/YEN crosses collapsed as well, while the EUR isholding up on the GBP (cross through 0.68) but the CHF is ruling the European roost (EURX below 1.60). The big non-FX news is the continued tumble in equity markets, with the Nikkei down over 3%, the Hang Seng down nearly 3%, the Kospi down over 2.5%, while shares in Singapore, Philippines and Malaysia were off over 4% and China saw the B share indices tumbling over 7% at one point on the day. US Tnotes caught another bid as the flight to safety move continues, with 4.5% giving way, 4.40% open next. While normally this should really undermine the USD, it does look like traders are 1) taking risk off the table - with the MXN, TRY, ZAR, IDR and other emerging currencies under serious selling pressure 2) still taking off the funding currency side of the liquid trades- allowing the Yen and CHF to firm sharply 3) while beating up on the currencies that had attracted ‘hot money’, namely the GBP, AUD, NZD it seems. Data today… does it matter? Traderswill be betting on further equity market losses, and will continue to price in the ‘Greenspan put’ extending into the Bernanke era. Given Bernanke’s comments last week on globalization pushing prices higher, chances are that he will be none too keen to be seen as quick to cut ratesin the face of tumbling stock prices. The ECB may well be in the firing line first though, a rate hike on Thursday is a ‘done deal’, but if the stock markets in Europe trend sharply lower over the next few sessions, look for soothing words from the ECB after the rate hike - as they will try and let the markets know that they may be dogmatic, but they are also aware of events. On the charts the Yen risk is to bash through 115.30/00 for 114/113.40 and 112, then to 109 again. While clearly possible, the plunge here is still looking overdone, and chances are that the BoJ/MoF will start to complain about ‘FX not reflecting fundamentals’ if the currency moves too far in any one direction. Use 116 as the nearby recovery level, then 117 for 117.80/119. The EUR/USD should see 1.32 capping near term, still aiming for 1.31 and then 1.30, but the cross activity seems to be swamping here. Cable ? Breaking down nicely, still thinkg 1.9270 gives way for 1.90 so… BoC, RBA, RBNZ, BoE and ECB meet this week, payrolls the key on Friday though… Good luck!

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Forex daily http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/02/forex-daily/ http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/02/forex-daily/#comments Fri, 02 Mar 2007 07:49:54 +0000 admin http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/02/forex-daily/ Good morning… The USD remained firm vs. non-Yen FX o/n, with Japanese data suggesting that deflation is still a risk (no rush for the BoJ to raise rates then…), while the AUD data came out ok. Time to buy AUD/YEN? The chart pattern points to 89 risk still, but the 92/91 area ’should’ be drawing in buyers, despite the risk that the ‘carry trade’ is dead in the water, and that the yen risk is for a move back to the 85 zone. While the latter is clearly possible, for choice the rejection of the 96+ probe in the cross should remain limited, with 90 area support to hold for another push higher later on (still open for 100 and higher). NZD/YEN is just starting to break chart support, see if 81 gives way on a sustained basis with 79.60 to 77.40 open below this. Buy back at the latter with risk below the 250-day near 76.40? The problem with this is that the pullback may not hit big downside targets, and while pundits/media are lined up on the view that the carry trade is dead, for choice 1) Yen rates remain low 2) BoJ has not stepped in yet so 3) look for speculators to put the short yen trade on again, probably before Y116 vs. the USD. Data for the rest of the day is light, while next week will see the services ISM from the US, rate meetings from RBA, BoC, RBNZ and the BoE/ECB, with the RBNZ showing rate rise risk, ECB should be a done deal for 3.75%, but then what? Payrolls on Friday is the big number, and if this holds up then this should set up the EUR for a ’sell the fact’ trade. On the charts a push through $1.31 is needed to open up $1.30 and lower (favored), with resistance at $1.32 ahead of the $1.3240/60 zone. Risk trades? Gold prices tumbling will be making gold bugs scratch their heads, watch for $656 pressure for $640 per oz. and then lower. EUR/CHF is finding buyers at the 1.61 zone, and while a break to 1.58 could be seen, chances are that 1.61 draws out buyers, with a push back to 1.62, then 1.64 open later on. Cable? Favoring pushes to $1.94 still, see if $1.96 can cap today. EUR/GBP? Still up, still favoring 0.6750/60 capping for 0.6680/6650 and lower but… Watch the CAD, cracking 1.17 nicely now, 1.1760 key for 1.1880 again, then 1.1970/1.20 after all. AUD/CAD? Held 0.90, favoring another look at 0.94 near term, 1.00+ still open later on. Good luck!

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Euro Outlook http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/01/euro-outlook/ http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/01/euro-outlook/#comments Thu, 01 Mar 2007 13:38:00 +0000 admin http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/03/01/euro-outlook/ Good morning friends… participants continued to cut back more short-yen positions mostly due to the turmoil in asian stock markets… the euro fell against the yen, and registered a mixed trading against the dollar… technically, the euro may not have ended, yet, its corrective downmove and we suspect it can still extend lower in the short-term to 1.3160, ideally to 1.3110, before a new upmove arises… unless an intraday break above 1.3260 is seen, the euro will remain bearish; otherwise, the euro will immediately head to 1.3300/30 possibly, directly to 1.3370… in this resistance region of 1.3330/70 we will expect a new correction to unfold… the medium-term trend is still headed to the upside, and target is 1.3330/70 unless an hourly close below 1.3010 is registered, that will jeopardize the euro-bullish view and call for an initial slide to the 1.2925/10 zone…for the longer-term, the euro’s trend will remain on the bullish side unless a daily close below 1.2930 is seen… take care and have a nice day…

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Forex Focus http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/02/28/forex-focus/ http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/02/28/forex-focus/#comments Wed, 28 Feb 2007 09:43:48 +0000 admin http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/02/28/forex-focus/ Good morning…  FX markets were roiled on Tuesday as the yen firmed sharply, but given the tumble in global stocks and emerging market assets, the FX moves are (as usual) small beer in comparison.  Still, the game is afoot and the USD tumble is looking as if it is set to accelerate.  Trend followers in the EUR/USD will be watching the push through $1.32 closely, and if this holds then the case for $1.3370 probes will garner more confirmation, with $1.3660+ risk looking high after this.  Tough to fight the breakdown in the USD as the 10yr. yield has pushed sharply lower towards 4.5%, risk of 4.40% for 4% growing while the spread over the German bund has narrowed through 60bp, not helpful for the USD at all.  The durable goods number was a bit of a shocker, but this was going to be soft in any event so it may not be that bad.  The pickup in house sales was ignored, while today will see a wall of data, look for Fed comments and EU inflation to be key, GDP revisions may be interesting but… Watch the yen, sustained pressure through 119 will leave 116 as the swing target, then 113.40 and lower.  For choice? NZD, AUD and CAD turned already, could just be yen carry trades being lifted but if the ‘canary in the coalmine’ currencies are the leaders, maybe the EUR/USD stalls shy of 1.33, use a turn below 1.3170/30 and 1.31/1.3060 as the triggers for 1.29 again.  In the yen, favoring 118.70/119 recovery plays, then 120 but… Good luck!

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NY session http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/02/27/ny-session/ http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/02/27/ny-session/#comments Tue, 27 Feb 2007 12:54:03 +0000 admin http://www.economic0recession.info/2007/02/27/ny-session/ Good morning…. The USD came under serious pressure in London morning trade, with the US 10yr. yield falling to 4.60% on flight to safety/slowing down economy plays.  In the FX the yen surged through Y120 for Y119.40/30 probes, while the EUR/USD pushed up through $1.32.  In other markets the Chinese stock market fell out of bed (down over 8%) with worries over impending legislation (tightens up on stock sale fraud) and the continued tightening by the PBOC hitting home it seems.  For the USD the ‘doom and gloom’ surrounding the US economy still seems a touch overdone, but watch the durables and housing numbers today.  If they come out softer than expected then the USD will struggle to hold up, with real potential to see the USD come under bigger pressure then seen.  More likely, look for the data to not disappoint as much as many expect, bounce in the 10yr. back to 4.65% for 4.70% remains favored, should see the USD back to $1.31 and 120+.  In the yen though the risk is that 119 gives way for 116, simple swing target which could leave 113.40/110 open on a bigger pullback.  In the EUR/USD the push above 1.32 opens up 1.33 for 1.3370, eyes on 1.3660 after this.  Early days, and the NZD, AUD and CAD are not participating in this leg of USD selling which is a bit of a warning to USD bears.  The CHF is putting key chart support (return line) under pressure at the 1.2245 zone, see if this holds (for the most part) for 1.26+ again on a USD bounce.  Right now, under pressure, 1.20 at risk? Good luck! 

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